Thermal and nuclear power plants: Competitiveness in the new economic conditions

In recent years, the conditions of development and functionality of power generating assets have notably changed. Considering the decline in the price of hydrocarbon fuel on the global market, the efficiency of combined-cycle gas-turbine plants in the European part of Russia is growing in comparison with nuclear power plants. Capital investments in the construction of nuclear power plants have also increased as a result of stiffening the safety requirements. In view of this, there has been an increasing interest in exploration of effective lines of development of generating assets in the European part of Russia, taking consideration of the conditions that may arise in the nearest long-term perspective. In particular, the assessment of comparative efficiency of developing combined-cycle gas-turbine plants (operating on natural gas) in the European part of Russia and nuclear power plants is of academic and practical interest. In this article, we analyze the trends of changes in the regional price of hydrocarbon fuel. Using the prognosis of net-weighted import prices of natural gas in Western European countries—prepared by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERIRAS)—the prices of natural gas in the European part of Russia equilibrated with import prices of this heat carrier in Western Europe were determined. The methodology of determining the comparative efficiency of combined-cycle gas turbine plants (CCGT) and nuclear power plants (NPP) were described; based on this, the possible development of basic CCGTs and NPPs with regard to the European part of Russia for various scenarios in the prognosis of prices of gaseous fuel in a broad range of change of specific investments in the given generating sources were assessed, and the extents of their comparative efficiency were shown. It was proven that, at specific investments in the construction of new NPPs in the amount of 5000 dollars/kW, nuclear power plants in the European part of Russia become less efficient as compared to CCGTs operating on natural gas.