朝阳沟油田含水预测方法的适应性研究

水驱特征曲线和数学模型方法均是在油田开发中用来预测含水率的常用方法。以朝阳沟油田14个典型研究区块的基础数据，分别对甲型、丙型水驱特征曲线以及逻辑斯蒂含水模型和含水递推梯度模型的含水计算与预测结果进行了检验和比较，探讨了水驱特征曲线与无因次递减曲线联解公式预测含水率的可行性。对于目前处在中低含水开发阶段的朝阳沟油田，不管是甲型和丙型水驱特征曲线，还是逻辑斯蒂含水模型和含水递推梯度模型，都不能对年含水率做出满意的预测结果；通过甲型水驱特征曲线和无因次产量递减曲线联解，可以预测油田、区块或油井在不同开发时间下的年含水率的变化趋势，确定某一阶段的含水率上升范围。

Adaptability Study on Water Cut Prediction Method in Chaoyanggou Oilfield

Waterflooding curve and mathematical model are common methods to predict water cut during the development process of oilfield.According to the basic data from 14 blocks in Chaoyanggou 0ilfield,this paper checked and compared the water cut prediction results of the first and the third waterflooding curves and those of Logistic water cut and water cut＇s recursion gradient models.Meanwhile ,it deliberated the feasibility of water cut prediction by means of combining waterflooding and non-index decline curves.For the Chaoyanggou 0ilfield with low-to-middle water cut,none of the waterflooding curve,Logistic water cut and water cut＇s recursion gradient models could come to a satisfactory prediction result for annual water cut target.However,by combining the first waterflooding with non-index decline curves,it is practicable to predict the water cut＇s variation tendency at different times of oilfields,blocks and oil wells and to ascertain the in- creasing ranges of water cut at different intervals.