我国页岩气资源勘探区块项目生命周期风险价值评估研究

随着我国对页岩气资源勘探开发进程的不断加快,在借鉴美国页岩气勘探区块价值评估经验的基础上,针对我国目前页岩气勘探区块项目的特点,结合我国现在的投资环境和相关财税法规,研究适合于我国页岩气勘探区块自身特点的风险价值评估的指标体系和评价模型至关重要。本文提出了基于通用的贴现现金流法建立页岩气勘探区块风险价值评估模型,并由该模型计算出的期望净现值(ENPV)作为主要评价指标,将风险期望价值(EMV)、最大负现金流(MNCF)、成本波动率以及风险贴现系数(贴现率)作为辅助性评价指标,建立了我国页岩气勘探区块风险价值评估的指标体系,实现对页岩气勘探区块在整个生命周期内主要的风险进行充分评估,客观地判断和分析页岩气勘探区块的价值,实例应用效果好。

Study on the risk value assessment of project's life cycle of shale gas resources exploration block in China

In recent years, shale gas resources, as an important low-carbon, cleaning and environmental new energy, have already become the new spotlight of global exploration and development of oil-gas, and the value of the exploration and development of shale gas resources also raise high concern around the world. Our country, as owning the largest quantity of shale gas resources in the world, has a late start an the exploration and development with its sophisticated geological condition, which makes the shale gas resources exploration block of our country, facing not only with a series problems of shale geological theory and engineering technology, but also with the great risk of exploration, compared with the commercial scale mining of the United. Therefore, as the speeding up progress of the shale gas resources_, exploration and development of our country, the research on the indicator system and evaluation model of risk and value assessment fitting the unique traits of shale gas exploration block of our country, after taking the evaluation experiences on the value of shale gas exploration block of the United States for references and aiming at the characteristics of the current shale gas exploration block of our country. The evaluation model of risk and value of shale gas exploration block ,which bases on the general discount cash-flow means, is came up with. The establishment of the indicator system on risk and value assessment of shale gas exploration block of our country, by using ENPV calculated via the model as major evaluation indicator and EMV, MNCF costs volatility and discount rate as the assistant evaluation indicators, realizes the fully assessment on the main risks during the life cycle of the shale gas exploration block and estimates and analyzes the value of shale gas exploration block. Application effect is great on instance.