水库防洪与补源优化调度及其风险分析

本文从洪水资源化与水资源可持续开发利用的角度建立水库防洪与补源优化调度的数学模型。利用流域产汇流模型计算入库洪水，并考虑短期降雨预报信息，将交互式生成技术与动态规划模型相结合来优化水库的调度方案，给出考虑洪水预报和降雨预报误差的水库防洪与补源优化调度风险率的定义与计算方法。将此模型和风险分析方法应用于大连市碧流河水库的防洪与补源联合优化调度中，对其风险值和补源效益进行了分析与计算。结果表明与常规调度相比，引洪补源优化调度能提高洪水资源利用率，补源效益十分显著。

Optimal dispatch of reservoir flood control combining with groundwater recharge and its risk analysis

The model for runoff generation and flow concentration in watershed is applied to calculate the flood flowing into the reservoir according to the short-term hydrological forecast information. An improved dynamic programming model is used incorporated with interactive generating technology to establish the optimized joint operation of flood and groundwater recharge. The method for calculating the risk of optimized dispatch according to the error of flood forecast and meteorological forecast is proposed. As an example, the successful application of the proposed model and risk calculation method in the joint operation of flood control and groundwater recharge is presented. It shows that the recharged water quantity is less than and economic benefit is remarkably better than that by using other methods.