模糊理论在中长期负荷预测中的应用

本文先介绍三种用模糊理论进行中长期负荷预测的方法的数学模型，即模糊指数平滑法，模糊线性回归法和模糊聚类预测法，然后以邢台地区实际预测为例，给出预测结果，并对三种方法进行了比较和误差分析，实践证明了这三种方法具有比传统方法预测精度高、预测误差小的优点，应予推广使用。

THE APPLICATION OF FUZZY THEORY IN THE LONG AND MEDIUM TERM LOAD FORECASTING

This paper first presents the mathematical model of applying fuzzy theory to carrying out long and medium term load forecasting, namely fuzzy exponential smoothing method, fuzzy linear regression method and fuzzy cluster forecasting method. Then the forecasting results are given with the example of practical forecasting to Xingtai area. Besides, the comparison and error analysis are carried out to these three methods. The practice proves that these three methods have the advantage of higher forecasting accuracy and smaller forecasting error compared to traditional methods, thus should be popularized.