三峡库区水循环要素现状评价及预测

基于实测数据和统计资料建立三峡水库分布式水文模型，对三峡库区水循环现状进行评价， 以分析三峡库区范围内降水、径流等水循环要素的空间分布特征，并采用多个全球气候模式的集合平 均模拟结果，利用统计降尺度方法将气候模式与分布式水文模型藕合预估了未来气候变化条件下三峡 库区水循环要素的变化情况。研究结果表明:在现状条件下，除个别地区外三峡库区年降水量和年径 流量的空间分布相对较均匀，且在未来气候变化条件下，相对于历史多年平均值，预计:三峡库区年 平均温度将上升1. 3 qC，年蒸发量将增加2. 8 %，年降水量和年径流量将分别减少0. 8%和8. 2%，径 流量的减少幅度和蒸发量的增加幅度大于降水量的减少幅度，对库区未来的水资源综合管理提出了更 高的要求。

Prediction and evaluation on status of water cycle elements within area of Three Gorges Reservoir

Based on the measured and statistical data concerned,the distributed hydrological model of the Tree Gorges Reservoir is established for evaluating the status of the water cycle within the area of the reservoir,so as to clarify the spatial distribution characteristics of the water cycle elements of precipitation,runoff,etc.within the area of the reservoir.Furthermore,the climate-mode and the distributed hydrological model are coupled with the statistical downscaling method on the basis of the application of ...