北京市降雨量与参考作物腾发量多时间尺度的集对分析

为了揭示北京市降雨量和参考作物腾发量之间的不确定性关系,以期为二者的变化规律分析、预报和预测提供支撑,利用1961—2009年的长时间序列资料,应用小波分析方法对北京市的降雨量和参考作物腾发量的波动周期和局部特征进行分析,应用集对分析方法分析不同时间尺度下的降雨量和参考作物腾发量之间的同一性、差异性和对立性。结果表明,北京市降雨量和参考作物腾发量之间存在不同时间尺度的周期波动,且差异性在短、中、长周期尺度水平上占据主要位置,而在中长周期尺度水平上对立性占据主要位置,这为分析降雨量和参考作物腾发量在多时间尺度上的变化规律和二者在多层次上的关系提供支持。

Set Pair Analysis on Rainfall and Reference Crop Evapotranspiration of Beijing City in Multiple Time-scales

For revealing the uncertainty between rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration ( ET0 ) , which can provide support for the analysis on their change laws and forecast, based on the data series of rainfall and ET0 in Beijing City from 1961 to 2009,the local characteristics and fluctuation periods of rainfall and ET0 were analyzed with the wavelet analysis method, and the identity, discrepancy and contrary of rainfall and ET0 under multi-time scales were revealed using the set pair analysis. The results show that there are com-plex periodic fluctuation with multi-time scales between rainfall and ET0 , and the discrepancy is reflected in all the periodic scales while the contrary is mainly presented in the middle and long periodic scales. It can provide technological support for the analysis of change laws and relationship between rainfall and ET0 in multi-time scales.