水资源设计承载力的探讨

在现阶段水资源承载力定义中,由于未深入考虑主体(水资源)随时间变化的不确定性,并且所涉及的客体过于理论化、抽象化、笼统化,往往导致计算成果难以用于实践。本文将"设计"的概念和思维融入到水资源承载力之中,提出水资源设计承载力的确切定义,并界定其内涵。根据设计的供水保证率和发展模式分别计算相应的可供水量和用水量,基于供用水平衡,推求出可承载的最大人口数量。经过分析和实例验证,证明水资源设计承载力计算简单且成果实用。

Discussion on Design Carrying Capacity of Water Resources

In the definitions of water resources carrying capacity at the present stage, for the unpredictability of subject ( i. e. water re-sources) over time and the objects involved in water resources are too theoretical, abstract and general, calculation results about water resources carrying capacity are often difficult to guide practice. This paper integrates the concept of design into water resources carrying capacity, and proposes the exact definition on the design carrying capacity of water resources. Based on the design guarantee rate of wa-ter supply and development pattern, the corresponding amount of water supply and water consumption are respectively calculated, and the maximum number of population carrying capacity can be deduced on the basis of water supply and demand balance. The case study shows that the calculation method about design carrying capacity of water resources is simple and practical.