基于系统动力学的电力批发市场和零售市场相互关系分析

从系统的视角量化研究电力批发市场和零售市场的相互作用关系,是揭示2个市场运作规律的重要手段。运用系统动力学(SD)方法建立了包含3个发电商、3类零售商、2种零售套餐(固定电价合同和实时响应电价合同)、日前市场、实时市场,以及以勒那指数和平均现货电价为评价指标的2个市场相互作用模型并仿真,分析了输配电价分摊方式为峰荷责任法情景下的2个市场相互作用关系。仿真结果表明:在批发竞争模式中,当发电企业数量较少时,部分电量参与现货市场竞争的平均现货电价水平、零售商的风险水平均低于全部电量参与现货市场竞争的情景;在零售竞争模式中,零售商以电价套餐引导用户合理用电,通过削峰填谷,平抑批发市场的电价;基于峰荷责任法的输配电定价方法通过影响零售商售电策略,改善系统负荷曲线,提高零售竞争水平,并给优质零售商提供了更大的盈利空间。

Analysis on Relationship Between Electricity Wholesale Market and Retail Market Based on System Dynamics Method

It is an important method to reveal the operation law of electricity wholesale and retail markets by quantifying the interaction mechanism between them from the perspective of whole system. Based on the system dynamics method, a simulation model is established including three power generators, three retailers, two retail offers(fixed price contract and real-time response to price contract), day-ahead market, real-time market, Lerner index and average spot price evaluation index. The interaction between electricity wholesale and retail market is simulated. The results show that: in the monopoly scenario, the average spot price level and retailer''s risk level under partial power participation in the spot market are lower than those under full power participating situation; in the competition scenario, retailers can shift peak load and stabilize wholesale market price by guiding users'' electricity consumption through retail price packages; the transmission and distribution cost allocation method based on peak load can smooth system load curve and raise the level of retail competition through influencing retailer''s strategy, while provide more profit for high-quality retailers. This work is supported by State Grid Corporation of China(No. SGERI06KJ(2013)51)and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No. 2104QN07).