金沙江溪洛渡水电站工程风险分析

溪洛渡水电站是金沙江开发的第一个巨型工程，工程投资大，技术复杂，存在着政策风险、市场风险、技术风险、环境与移民风险及投资风险。对这些风险因素进行分析和识别，有利于业主在工程建设管理中同避风险，减少损失。溪洛渡水电站可行性研究中用风险评估和风险分析方法，对投资风险进行了量化分析，找出投资风险较大的项目进行重点监控。

Risk analysis on Xiluodu Hydropower Project on the Jinsha River

The Xiloudu Hydropower Project is the first huge project in the development of the Jinsha River. The project needs great investment and sophistic technology. It exists policy risk, market risk, technical risk, environmental and resettlement risk as well as investment risk. Therefore, analysis and recognition on these risks will be beneficial for the Owner to avoid them and will reduce the losses of the construction and management of the Project. This paper introduces the methodology of how to perform the quantitative analysis, how to determine the key monitoring points of the items which exist large investment risks by using risk evaluation and risk analysis methods in the feasibility study.