油气管道泄漏事故的定量风险评价

介绍了油气管道泄漏事故定量风险评价的基本原则和一般步骤.分析了泄漏事故概率和事故后果,并根据事故基本参数确定其数值.根据这两种指标,运用危险矩阵来简单地确定风险等级及提出推荐的处理建议.此外,在考虑事故后果时,介绍了事件树分析法.根据油气泄漏事故可能造成的3种后果(无燃烧、燃烧和爆炸事件),分别估算了其发生概率.从安全、经济和环境3个方面评价了油气泄漏的后果,讨论了相应后果指标的考虑因素.同时还介绍了推荐的管道失效概率分类准则,并阐述了3类损伤发展模型,即速度模型、敏感模型和无关模型.

Quantitative risk assessment for failure of oil and gas pipelines

The basic principles and general process of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for oil and gas pipeline failure were introduced.The probability of failure and consequence of failure were determined by the essential parameters for describing failures of pipeline.According to the probability and consequence of pipeline failures,the criticality matrix was simply used to evaluate risk levels and provide the recommended suggestion for failure mitigation.In addition,as for consequence of failure,the event tree analysis was introduced in detail.Three consequences of oil and gas leakage were simply regarded as tree branches,namely,nonignitable,ignitable and explosive events.The probabilities of the events could be estimated with the tree branches.The consequences of oil and gas leakages were assessed,as for three fields of safety,economy and environment.The influence factors on these indexes for describing the consequences of failure were discussed.The recommended classification principles for failure probability were introduced.Three common degradation models including rate model,susceptibility model and insignificant model were also described.