Analysis of scenarios for the reduction of energy consumption and GHG emissions in transport in the Basque Country

Fossil energy depletion and fight against climate change force humanity to decarbonize the economy. By year 2050 CO₂ emissions will have to reduce globally at least 85%, and probably over 95% in developed countries.The modeling of the transportation of people and commodities in the Basque Autonomous Community (Spain) in year 2008 has allowed us to draw some conclusions about the challenges ahead. The exploration of several scenarios modeled in order to reduce energy consumption in transport shows that mobility in a decarbonized world will have to be more efficient, electrified when moving people and freight on land, based on renewable generation, and organized in such a way that guarantees very high occupancies of vehicles. All these elements will be indispensable, and even not sufficient if they are still not complemented with a reduction of mobility in absolute terms, so that economic transportation intensity—the ratio between transportation and whole economic activity—recovers to levels seen in the world four decades ago, prior to the development of present hypermobility.