基于灰色理论优选完井方式的新方法研究

基于油井初始产能预测模型及概率统计方法,对储层不确定性参数进行数据离散,求得产能概率分布及最可能出现的初始产油量,结合油井产能递减规律模型和NPV经济评价模型,运用灰色理论,给出了一种完井方式优选的多指标综合方法,考虑了初始产油量、累计产油量、净现值、措施成本、动态投资回收期等多个评价指标,求取不同完井方式各指标的关联系数,进而求取不同完井方式的关联度,比较不同完井方式的关联度,选择最优完井方式,为油田完井方式的选择提供依据。

STUDY ON OPTIMIZATION OF COMPLETION METHODS BASED ON THE GREY THEORY

Considering the presence of the errors, discretizing the factors in some extent and combination, and the productivity probability distribution can be gotten. With the application of Probability Analysis Theory, the initial productivity was calculated. Based on the Grey Theory, a new method to choosing the optimal completion method was proposed, which considered the initial productivity, the accumulative productivity, the NPV, the expense, the dynamic invest payback period. The grey correlation coefficients of the assessment targets of different completion methods were calculated, and the grey correlation degree was got. Comparing the grey correlation degree, the optimal completion method was selected.