新疆卡拉贝利水库淤积现状分析及预测

泥沙淤积直接影响水库的正常运用和使用寿命，为掌握新疆卡拉贝利水库现状及未来的泥沙淤积情况，本文首先根据实测资料分析卡拉贝利水库运行6年的库区泥沙淤积情况，然后建立水库一维泥沙数学模型，在对模型进行验证的基础上，预测计算水库运用50年的泥沙淤积情况。研究结果表明，所建模型可以较好地模拟出卡拉贝利水库泥沙淤积过程及分布，计算结果与实测资料吻合良好，卡拉贝利水库运行初期淤积速度较快，主要淤积在死水位以下的河道主槽内;水库运行20年时死库容基本淤满，此后淤积速度明显减缓;水库运行30年后，平均排沙比在90%以上，库区泥沙基本达到平衡状态;在水库运行50年时，总库容损失49.24%，库区总淤积量为12871.95万m³。

Analysis of current sedimentation and prediction of future sedimentation for Kalabeili Reservoir in Xinjiang

The reservoir sedimentation directly affects the normal operation and service life of the Kalabeili Reservoir(KR).In order to grasp the current situation and future of KR sedimentation，this study first analyzes the KR sedimentation during the operation for 6 years according to the measured data，and then establishes a 1D sediment mathematical model of the reservoir.Based on the verification of the model，the reservoir sedimentation for 50 years is predicted.The results show that the model can simulate the sedimentation process and distribution of KR well，and the calculated results are in good agreement with the measured data.Initial stage of reservoir operation，the sedimentation rate of KR is fast，and the sediment is mainly deposited in the main channel below the dead water level.After 20 years of operation，the dead storage capacity is basically full，and the sedimentation rate has slowed down significantly.After 30 years of operation，the average sediment discharge ratio is above 90%，basically reaching the equilibrium state of siltation.After 50 years of operation，the total storage capacity loss is 49.24%，and the total sedimentation volume is 128，719，500 m³.