煤矿重大瓦斯爆炸事故致因的概率分析及启示

基于对煤矿特别重大瓦斯爆炸事故致因的统计和概率分析，揭示了近年来大多数煤矿特别重大瓦斯爆炸事故发生在正常生产条件下的低瓦斯“安全”区域的新特点和规律；分析在煤矿集约化生产的新形势下，加强对瓦斯突发事件致使“安全”区域的状态动态转换成危险区域，以及原发性灾害诱发继发性灾害重大隐患防治的必要性和可能性；并以瓦斯事故防治为例，提出了建立煤矿安全生产高可靠性安全保障机制的相关工程技术管理措施.

The probability analysis of occurrence causes of extraordinarily serious gas explosion accidences and its revelation

Based on the statistics and probability analysis of the occurrence causes of extraordinarily serious gas explosion accidences,revealed the new characteristics and regularity of the occurrence causes in the serious gas explosion accidences,that meaned the most serious gas explosion accidents occurred at the ordinal "safe area" with lower gas concentration in the recent years.The necessity and possibility of the prevention and control,for the serious hidden dangers induced by the dynamically state change in ordinal "safe area" to dangerous state with the unexpected gas released and the secondary disasters induced from the ordinal disasters,were analyzed.As an example for setting up the new safe guarantee mechanism with the high reliability,presented the engineering technology and management measures in the prevention and control of gas disaster in coal mines.