采空区失稳辨析的RS-CPM方法研究及应用

采空区稳定性受静态和动态等多种因素影响，且破坏机理复杂，为了有效辨识金属矿山采空区危险性等级，研究采取了基于粗糙集和突变级数的采空区危险性辨识（RS-CPM）方法。根据突变级数法将选取影响金属采空区稳定性的6个主要因素，即抗拉强度、泊松比、采空区体积、采空区宽高比、埋藏深度和空区群影响系数等构建起具有3个层次的辨析指标体系。根据粗糙集理论确定各个层次指标的相对重要性并进行排序，运用突变理论计算得到突变级数值，从而实现对采空区危险性的辨析。实际应用表明，该模型的辨析结果与实际情况相吻合，因而为金属矿采空区的危险性辨析提供了一种新方法。

Study and Application of RS-CPM Model for Analysis of Mined Goaf Insta-bility

Stability of goaf was influenced by the static and dynamic factors，and has complex failure mechanism. In order to identify the goaf hazard level effectively，an identification method（RS-CPM method） based on the catastrophe progression method and rough set for the stability classification of metal mine goaf was presented.Six factors which were tensile strength，poisson ratio，volume of underground goaf，goaf aspect ratio，burial depth and goaf group influencing index，influencing the stability of metal mine goaf were selected in this paper according to the catastrophe progression method.These six factors were divided into three levels which were denoted respectively by B1，B2，B3.Analysis index system was built by these three levels.Then the relative importance of each level index were determined according to the rough set，so these levels were ranked.These indexes were concentrated as the catastrophe theory was used.The application of analysis for mine goaf was achieved finally.26 sets of domestic typical metal mine goaf instability data were collected to train and test on the analysis model，and the calculation result shows that the output of the model agrees with the actual situation.A new thoughts for instability of metal mine goaf was provided.