Uncertainty in the learning rates of energy technologies: An experiment in a global multi-regional energy system model

The diffusion of promising energy technologies in the market depends on their future energy production–cost development. When analyzing these technologies in an integrated assessment model using endogenous technological learning, the uncertainty in the assumed learning rates (LRs) plays a crucial role in the production–cost development and model outcomes. This study examines the uncertainty in LRs of some energy technologies under endogenous global learning implementation and presents a floor-cost modeling procedure to systematically regulate the uncertainty in LRs of energy technologies. The article narrates the difficulties of data assimilation, as compatible with mixed integer programming segmentations, and comprehensively presents the causes of uncertainty in LRs. This work is executed using a multi-regional and long-horizon energy system model based on “TIMES” framework. All regions receive an economic advantage to learn in a common domain, and resource-ample regions obtain a marginal advantage for better exploitation of the learning technologies, due to a lower supply-side fuel-cost development. The lowest learning investment associated with the maximum LR mobilizes more deployment of the learning technologies. The uncertainty in LRs has an impact on the diffusion of energy technologies tested, and therefore this study scrutinizes the role of policy support for some of the technologies investigated.