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赛塘流域ISVC方法应用中的关键问题分析
引用本文:李匡,刘舒,臧文斌,刘可新.赛塘流域ISVC方法应用中的关键问题分析[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2020,18(2):104-111.
作者姓名:李匡  刘舒  臧文斌  刘可新
作者单位:中国水利水电科学研究院 防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038,中国水利水电科学研究院 防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038,中国水利水电科学研究院 防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038,中国水利水电科学研究院 北京中水科水电科技开发有限公司, 北京 100038
基金项目:“十三五”国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFC0405804);北京市自然科学基金项目(8184094);中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费专项项目(AU0145B202019)
摘    要:详细介绍了ISVC方法中关键点平稳期选择及平稳期阈值的确定,以赛塘流域为研究对象,分析了平稳期选择及平稳期阈值对ISVC方法修正效果的影响,结果表明,平稳期选择及平稳期阈值对修正结果有着明显影响,在实际应用中,应选择主要降水还未开始,只有零星降水,河道洪水过程较为平稳的阶段作为平稳期,以避免降水对修正结果的干扰。在确定平稳期阈值时,应尽量选择更多的洪水场次,找出平稳期阈值与整场洪水之间的规律,避免阈值设置不当造成的过度修正和修正不足等问题。

关 键 词:ISVC方法  洪水预报  误差修正  新安江模型
收稿时间:2019/4/19 0:00:00

Analysis of key points in the application of ISVC method in Saitang Basin
LI Kuang,LIU Shu,ZANG Wenbin and LIU Kexin.Analysis of key points in the application of ISVC method in Saitang Basin[J].Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2020,18(2):104-111.
Authors:LI Kuang  LIU Shu  ZANG Wenbin and LIU Kexin
Affiliation:Research Center on Flood&Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China,Research Center on Flood&Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China,Research Center on Flood&Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China and Beijing IWHR Technology Co. Ltd, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Abstract:The stationary period selection as well as its threshold, which is the key point of the ISVC method, is introduced in detail. It is analyzed of the influence of the stationary period selection as well as its threshold on the performance of the ISVC method by doing research in Saitang basin. The results show that the stationary period selection and its threshold have a significant impact on the correction effect of the ISVC method. To avoid the interference of precipitation on the correction results, the stationary period should be selected in the situation when there is only sporadic rain without the arrival of the main rainfall and when the stage of the river flood process is relatively stable. In order to get the proper value of the stationary period threshold, as many floods as possible should be selected to find the law between the stationary period threshold and the whole flood, so as to avoid the problems of excessive correction as well as insufficient correction caused by improper threshold setting.
Keywords:ISVC method  flood forecasting  forecast accuracy  Xin''anjiang model
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