软件项目风险分析——改进的故障树分析模型

该文首先回顾和分析了国内外研究现状,指出了当前要解决的理论和实践问题,对风险管理的概念及过程进行阐述,并对风险识别、风险估计、风险评价的具体过程进行了介绍。然后对现有的风险分析模型——FTA模型进行改进,把风险发生时对项目的损失考虑进来,指出对项目影响最大的风险即为风险发生时引起项目损失最大的那个风险因素。在本文中用风险重要度衡量,而原模型得出的风险只是风险率最大的那个风险。再结合现有FTA模型中降低风险时成本最小的考虑,使原模型更加适合实际软件项目的风险分析,既能找出对项目损失影响最大的那个风险因素,也能降低所需要成本最少的那个风险因素。此模型既发挥了原模型定性分析与估算的优势,又展现了数学逻辑严密的定量分析的长处。

Software Project Risk Analysis:Improved Fault Tree Analysis

The main contents of this paper are as follows: Firstly,the history and state-of-the-art of this subject are reviewed both domestically and abroad,and points out the theoretical and practical problems to be solved,describes the concepts and process of Risk Management,and analyzes the process of Risk Identification,Risk Estimation and Risk Evaluation.And then,the author improves the present Risk Analysis Model-FTA Model,the risk which has the significant impact to project lost to be considered,and points out...