基于最大熵原理和蒙特卡罗法的滑坡推力概率模型

滑坡推力作为支挡结构的外部荷载具有很大的不确定性,用概率模型来描述这种不确定性是合理的。为了建立滑坡推力的概率模型,把最大熵原理与蒙特卡罗法相结合,用蒙特卡罗法确定复杂随机变量的统计矩,基于最大熵原理求解随机变量的概率密度函数,建立滑坡推力的基于最大熵概念的概率密度函数统计模型,并对某边坡进行实例分析。结果表明:基于最大熵概念上的随机变量概率模型可行、有效。

Probability Distribution Model of the Landslide Thrust Based on Maximum Entropy Principle and Monte Carlo Method

As external load of supporting structure, the landslide thrust was uncertain. It was rational that prob- ability distribution model was used to describe the uncertainty. In order to establish the probability distribution mod- el of landslide thrust, the paper combined the maximum entropy principle with Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo method was used to determine the statistical moment of complicated random variable. The probability distribution function was obtained based on the maximum entropy principle. An example about slope was provided to demon- strate the better efficiency of the method. The results showed that this method was feasible and valid.