海警截击作战最优策略模拟研究

本文建立了海警截击作战在线搜索的实战模型，采用计算机作战模拟试验，并对试验结果进行定量统计分析的方法对模型进行了研究。试验结论：１）截击搜索存在最优决策；２）搜索速度越大，发现目标概率的最大值也越大；３）目标航向偏差对发现目标的概率影响很大，说明了获取准确的情报和指挥员判断、挑选适宜的截击点对截击作战的重要性；４）截击延时对发现目标概率最大值的影响不显著。为此，本文结合战例分析，建议在截击实战中采用多重截击战术。 最后，对试验数据进行了回归分析，得出最优搜索线长的经验公式，经初步对照检验，该公式较好地解决了截击作战的最优策略问题。

A Simulation Study About the Optimum Tactics of Intercepting Search

The problems of intercepting search on the sea are studied by means of computer simulation and quantitative statistics interpretation on the simulation results. The conclusion results are as follows: Firstly, the effects of the intercepting search is closely related to search rate. Secondly, the maximum seizing probability rises with the search rate rising. Thirdly, the course deviation will seriously affect the seizing probability, that is, accurate in- telligence and command decision become very important for the intercepting effects. For this reason, the paper suggests that the sea frontier forces set up various search lines in their in- tercepting missions.