Trends in breast cancer screening in Missouri from 1987 to 1995, and predictions for the years 2000 and 2010

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States (U.S.) and Missouri. In 1992, 3,915 new breast cancer cases were diagnosed and in 1995, 1,006 deaths from breast cancer were reported in Missouri. Although breast cancer incidence has increased in Missouri in the past 20 years, there are indications that early detection has also increased during the same period. Knowledge about which segments of the population have experienced the greatest increase in mammography screening rates helps in planning and implementation of breast cancer control programs at the state level. OBJECTIVES: Examine the prevalence and trends of lifetime mammography and 2-year mammography compliance in Missouri by age, race, and education from 1987 to 1995 and make predictions for the years 2000 and 2010. METHODS: We used data from the Missouri Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), 1987 to 1995, to estimate the prevalence of ever having had a mammogram and compliance with mammography screening guidelines within two years by race, age, and education status among Missouri women over age 18. Using linear models, we regressed breast cancer screening prevalence estimates on time to obtain trends and predictions. RESULTS: Overall, African-American women were more likely to have had a lifetime mammogram than white women. However, we found a steady increase in the prevalence of ever having had a mammogram for all groups of women defined by age and education status, except among African Americans. Increase in the prevalence of ever having had a mammogram was much higher in women age 50 and older and slightly higher among women with a high school education or less. The average prevalence of 2-year mammography screening compliance was about 60% for all groups, a rate which did not significantly change between 1987 and 1995. By the year 2000, white women will have mammography rates equal to or higher than African-American women, and the majority of all women age 50 and older (98.3% to 100%) will have had a lifetime mammogram. CONCLUSION: Missouri target populations are predicted to attain Year 2000 National Health Objectives concerning lifetime mammography. Current efforts should be continued in order to maintain levels of mammography, particularly among African-American women.