基于清洁能源可获得量违约分析的电力规划

合理的电力生产规划,对提高电力行业能效具有重要的意义。针对电力系统中的复杂性及参数的多种不确定性,建立了基于低端达到度的电力生产不确定机会约束模型。该模型从系统角度出发,综合考虑能源的供应、发电技术的选择、发电系统的改扩建、电力生产、污染削减以及电力消费等一系列过程,为电力系统能源优化配置奠定了基础;通过概率水平P_pi,定量化表征清洁能源可获得量约束被违约水平,分析不同违约水平下能源资源供应、电力生产、容量扩充以及污染物消减方案,揭示系统效益与可靠性之间的权衡关系,为维护电力系统发电侧安全提供了技术支持。

Planning of Power Generation Systems Based on Violation Analysis of Clean Energy Resources Availabilities

Reasonable plans for electric power generation systems are very critical for efficiency improvement in electric power industry. In this study, a lower-side-attainment-value-based inexact fuzzy chance-constraint programming model is developed to deal with the complexities and uncertainties in regional electric power generation system planning. Firstly, the model integrated the energy supply, conversion and consumption, the option, renovation and expansion of conversion technologies, the electricity generation and the pollutant mitigation into the planning frame, providing a foundation for optimized energy allocation. Secondly, based on probability(pi) levels, the violation of constraints on clean energy resource availabilities can be quantified, and the relationship between system costs and reliability can be reflected via the analysis on the solutions to energy supply, electricity generation, capacity expansion and emission mitigation under different pi levels, which is supportive to the security of generation side.