改进的电量灰色预测方法实证对比研究

伴随电力工业的快速发展,科学的中长期电力电量预测成为一项非常重要的基础性工作。在研究传统中长期灰色预测模型的基础上,介绍了2种背景值重构方法以及基于马尔可夫链的处理手段,对模型的构造环节进行改进;然后引入拟合精度指标和预测精度指标,从不同角度检验模型的优劣;最后根据中国实际电量数据,分2种情景进行了定量横向对比,验证了改进模型的有效性。

Study on Methods of Structure Improvement for Power Load Grey Forecasting

With the rapid development of the electric power industry, mid- and long-term power load forecasting has become a very important fundamental work. Based on the study of a traditional mid- and long-term grey model, two methods to restructure the background values of the model are introduced and the improvement of the model structure is made based on the Markov chain and then the fitting accuracy index and the prediction accuracy index are tested to verify the modification from different aspects. Finally, through quantitive comparison between two scenarios, the effectiveness of the improved model is proved with the real power load data.