城市土地利用对交通事故的影响因素与作用机制研究——以武汉市为例

城市大规模用地更新给交通安全带来了重大影响。以武汉市为例,运用聚类分析和负二项模型识别交通事故的高发区,分析土地利用对交通事故的影响和作用机制。交通事故高发区具有人口密度高、居住用地比例高和土地利用混合程度高等特征,城市交通事故与居住用地、工业用地、绿地、土地利用混合度正相关,与公共管理与公共服务用地负相关,交通流量是土地利用影响交通事故的中介变量,以此为基础提出交通安全导向的土地利用规划思路。

The Impact Factor and Mechanism of Urban Land Use on Traffic Accidents:A Case Study of Wuhan City

Large-scale urban renewal has a great impact on traffic safety.Taking Wuhan as an example,cluster analysis and negative binomial model were used to identify the high-incidence areas of traffic accidents,and we explored the impact and mechanism of land use on crashes.The result showed that the high-incidence areas of tra ffic accidents have the characteristics of high population density,high proportion of residential land and high level of land use mix.Urban tra ffic accidents were positively correlated with the residential land,industrial land,green space,and land use mix,and were negatively associated with public management and public service land.Moreover,traffic volume was a mediator between land use and traffic crashes.Based on this,this paper puts forward the idea of traffic-safety-oriented land use planning.