韧性城市视角下海平面上升对沿海城市的影响及对策研究——以厦门市为例

随着全球气候不断变化,海平面上升速率逐渐加快,严重影响着沿海城市的安全与可持续发展,提升沿海城市韧性已经成为其应对气候变化的战略共识。基于韧性城市理论,构建了海平面上升影响分析及韧性评价模式,并以厦门市为例,展开了不同时间情景下的影响分析及韧性评估。结果表明,2030年和2050年在海平面上升的影响下,受灾人口将增加6万人和8万人,受灾建设用地将增加5.1km^2和8.3km^2,受灾道路将增加14.6km和24.0km。同时通过空间评估,明确了不同地区韧性提升的重点。最后针对性地提出了厦门城市韧性提升的策略。

The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Cities and Measures from the Perspective of Resilience City:A Case Study of Xiamen

As the global climate continues to change,the rate of sea level rise is gradually accelerating,which seriously affects the safety and sustainable development of coastal cities.Improving the resilience of coastal cities has become a strategic consensus for addressing climate change.Based on the theory of resilient city,this paper constructs the impact analysis and evaluation model of sea level rise.Taking Xiamen as an example,the paper conducts the impact analysis and resilience assessment under different time scenarios.The research shows that under the influence of sea level rise in 2030 and 2050,the affected population will increase by 60000 and 80000 people.The land use will increase by 5.1 km^2 and 8.3 km^2,and the traffic will increase by 14.6 km and 24.0 km.At the same time,through spatial assessment,the paper clarifies the focus of resilience improvement in different regions.Finally,this paper put forwards some suggestions on improving the resilience of Xiamen.