| 黄河中游1500年水旱序列的历史检验与黄河大洪水 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈家其. 黄河中游1500年水旱序列的历史检验与黄河大洪水[J]. 人民黄河, 1993, 0(12): 8-10 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈家其 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所 南京210008 |
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| 摘 要： | １９８１年在黄河中游地区建立了国内等一个１５００年的历史气候长序列。此后１２年的降雨变化证明，该序列指出的水旱变化规律是符合实际的。据此结合最新研究的全球变化背景，也说明本世纪９０年代，尤其是９０年代后期，黄河中游可能是个更为湿润时期，在多种全球变化影响因素相叠架的１９９７年前后，黄河流域有发生大洪水的可能。
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| 关 键 词： | 水旱灾害 地球运动 黄河中游 |
Historical Testing of the 1500 Years Chronological Series of Water and Drought of the Middle Yellow River and the Major Floods |
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| Chen Jiaqi. Historical Testing of the 1500 Years Chronological Series of Water and Drought of the Middle Yellow River and the Major Floods[J]. Yellow River, 1993, 0(12): 8-10 |
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| Authors: | Chen Jiaqi |
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| Affiliation: | Nanjing Geography and Lake Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences |
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| Abstract: | In 1981,the first long-term chronological series of historical climates of 1500 years in China was es-tablished in the middle Yellow River regions.Rainfall variation in the following 12 years had proved thatthe law of water and drought variation put forward by the chronological series accorded with the practicalsituation.According to the chronological series and the latest research achievements of global climate chang-ing background,it is showed that the 1990s especially the late 1990s might be more humid in the middleYellow River.Due to complicated factors affecting global change,there might be a major flood taking placein the Yellow River Valley around 1997. |
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| Keywords: | water and drought disasters solar cycle El Nino phenomenon movement of the earth1500 years the middle Yellow River |
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