基于灰色理论和RCM分析的发电设备风险分析

针对传统RCM中对发电设备进行风险分析时存在精度不高的问题，提出了基于灰色理论与RCM分析的定量风险分析方法。该方法利用灰色系统理论适合解决已知部分信息问题的特点，通过灰色关联分析提高了风险分析的精度。应用于汽轮机本体各系统的风险分析，对常见的故障模式及相应的设备部件进行风险优先排序，确定了各安全设备的相对重要性。实例计算表明：该方法可行有效，其结果为采取有效的运行维修策略，提高发电的安全性和经济性提供有力依据。图2表2参8

Risk Analysis of Power Plant Equipment Based on Grey Theory and RCM Analysis

In view of the problem ,that the precision of risk analysis of power plant equipment is low when using traditional RCM analysis, a method of quantitative risk analysis based on the grey-theory and RCM analysis is proposed. In this method, by using of grey relation analysis,not only is advantage of the theory made use of in solving problems with partly known information but analysis precision is improved. It is applied to analyze the risk to which steam turbine system are exposed, and to sequence generic failure modes and relevant components according to their risk weightiness. The calculation of a practical example shows that the method is feasible and effective, can serve as a powerful base for deciding on effective strategies concerning operation and maintenance and therewith improve safety and economy of power generation. Figs 2, tables 2 and refs 8.