水资源利用、水污染防治投入产出最优控制模型研究及应用

为研究区域水资源利用、水污染防治与国民经济发展之间的数量关系，优化国民经济产业结构及合理控制水资源利用水平和水污染治理水平，应用最优控制理论和优化技术，依据作者所设计和编制的水资源利用、水污染防治投入产出模型，构建了水资源利用、水污染防治投入产出最优控制模型，分析探讨了模型中主要参数的确定方法，对模型进行求解，并以江苏省为例，应用该模型优化求解了满足江苏省国民经济发展要求及水资源可持续利用和水污染控制要求的2006年至2010年国民经济各部门产出水平、发展速度以及各年度水资源使用总量和水污染治理总量。由计算结果分析得出：2006—2010年，江苏省在控制高耗水、高污染部门发展速度不超过10%的同时，水资源使用总量年增长速度应控制在5%～7%左右，COD去除量的增长速度需达到年平均34%左右，方能满足江苏省国民经济发展和水资源、水环境可持续利用的要求。

Research and Application of Water Resources Utilization and Water Pollution Control Input-Output Optimal Control Model

In order to study quantitative relations of water utilization, water pollution control and national economic development in certain a region and optimize the national industrial structure and reasonably control levels of water resources utilization and levels of water pollution treatment, water resources utilization and water pollution control input-output optimal control model is set up by application of optimal control theory and optimization technology, which is based on the water resources utilization and water pollution control input-output model built by author. Furthermore, determination method of the main parameters of the model are analyzed and investigated, and the model is solved. Then output level of each department of national economy, speed of development and the corresponding total amount of water resources use and water pollution control from 2006 to 2010 which meet to the sustainable utilization of water resources and the requirement of water pollution control of Jiangsu Province are got by optimization solution model. The analysis of calculation results shows that the development speed of industries with high water consumption and high pollution should be controlled within the 10%, meanwhile, the total amount of water consumption should be controlled in the annual growth rate of 5% ~ 7% and the total amount of COD removal should reach an annual average of about 34% in Jiangsu Province from 2006 to 2010. These can meet the requirements of national economic development and water resources, water environment in the sustainable utilization of Jiangsu Province.