| 上海地区高等级公路沥青路面使用性能预测方法研究探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 章华金,凌建明.上海地区高等级公路沥青路面使用性能预测方法研究探讨[J].粉煤灰综合利用,2010(4):5-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 章华金 凌建明 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学,道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海,201804 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市市政工程管理局科技发展资金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 在分析评价现有路面使用性能预测模型的基础上,分别采用马尔可夫概率预测模型和灰色理论预测模型,针对上海及类似地区高等级公路沥青路面进行使用性能预测分析。实例结果表明,马尔可夫概率预测模型受养护水平与PC I频数的干扰较大而适用性不强,而灰色理论预测模型具有受测试数据样本量影响小、预测精度高及适用性强等优点,因此更能适应上海及类似地区高等级公路沥青路面使用性能的预测,对公路养护决策具有重要意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 高等级公路 沥青路面 路面使用性能预测 马尔可夫概率预测模型 灰色理论预测模型 |
Study on the Asphalt Pavement Performance Prediction Methods of High-grade Highways |
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| Zhang Huajin,Ling Jianming.Study on the Asphalt Pavement Performance Prediction Methods of High-grade Highways[J].Fly Ash Comprehensive Utilization,2010(4):5-8. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Huajin Ling Jianming |
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| Affiliation: | Zhang Huajin,Ling Jianming(Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the analysis and evaluation of existing pavement performance prediction models,we make use of Markov models and gray prediction model respectively to analyze the asphalt pavement performance of high-grade highways in Shanghai and the similar areas.The results show that the Markov model can be largely interfered by the conservation level and PCI frequency while the theoretical prediction of gray model is hardly affected by the test data of small sample size with high accuracy so that it can be widel... |
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| Keywords: | high-grade highways asphalt pavement pavement performance prediction markov model gray theory model |
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