| 闸下淤积过程灰色预警分析探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋立松. 闸下淤积过程灰色预警分析探讨[J]. 泥沙研究, 2004, 0(2): 47-50 |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋立松 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省水利河口研究院,浙江,杭州,310020 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文强调了物理规律是预测控制的基础，预报模型的选择应与物理现象相符。文中针对闸下淤积的特点，应用灰色系统理论对闸下淤积过程进行了预测探讨，通过实例说明灰色Verhulst模型较GM(1，1)模型更适合于闸下淤积过程的预警分析，进一步表明检验模型的基础应当是物理规律，而不单纯是数据的拟合精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色模型 预警分析 闸下淤积 |
| 文章编号： | 0468-155X(2004)02-0047-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-01-10 |
Preliminary study on warning-forecast of sedimentation downstreamtide gates by using grey model |
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| SONG Li-song. Preliminary study on warning-forecast of sedimentation downstreamtide gates by using grey model[J]. Journal of Sediment Research, 2004, 0(2): 47-50 |
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| Authors: | SONG Li-song |
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| Abstract: | This paper emphasizes that the physical regularities are the essential foundation of any forecasting models. By using the grey model, the characteristics of sedimentation downstream tide gates are simulated.The results show that the grey Verhulst model has a better simulation ability than GM(1,1) model, which further proves the importance of that a model has good basis of physical regularity. |
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| Keywords: | grey model warning forecast analysis sedimentation downstream tide gates |
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