Model-based influencing factors analysis of residential heat consumption in district heating systems

Abstract

A simplified and accurate hybrid model is proposed to analyze, evaluate, and predict space heating energy consumption and indoor temperature in residential buildings connected to district heating systems. With classical engineering equations of thermodynamic laws, this method uses physical and empirical modeling to describe heat exchangers in real-time. Furthermore, the model has optimized the cost of computation and enhanced the prediction accuracy. It is revealed this method can accurately predict the residential heat load and indoor temperature with the maximum error of ±10%. The architectural parameter, outdoor temperature, and wind velocity have decisive effects on the heat energy demand.