一种实用的短期负荷组合预测方法

组合预测理论的发展正逐渐趋向成熟，其在电力系统负荷预测的研究与实践也逐渐增多。文中分别应用简单平均组合与最优加权组合原理，建立了短期负荷预测的组合模型。模型通过对某省负荷样本数据的分析，采用多角度选取样本，充分利用有限历史数据；同时引入多种数学模型，吸收了各模型所具有的优点。该模型具有预测精度高，建模速度快的特点。某省实际负荷数据的测试证明了模型的实用性。

A practical method for combined short-term load forecasting

The combined forecasting theory is developed perfectly .The load forecasting researches and applications by using the combined forecasting theory are more and more. The paper presents a short term load combined forecasting model using the simple average and weighted optimum combination principles. The model analyses the load samples data of a province, selects diverse samples, uses the historical data , introduces many mathematical models and takes the advantages of these models. The model is accurate and fast for modeling. The model practicality has been tested from the load measurements in a province.