预测与健康管理不确定性产生机理分析

针对预测与健康管理中的不确定性来源与传递问题，开展了不确定性产生与传播机理研究。首先，提出了一种预测与健康管理开放式体系结构，并提炼得到六项基本元素；其次，从基本元素入手，从测量、数据、模型、方法、决策和使用六方面分析了不确定性产生机理；然后，根据预测与健康管理工作流程，分析了不确定性传播机理，提出了不确定性传播定理。最后，不确定性产生与传播机理分析基础上，提出了预测与健康管理不确定性消解策略，以期消减预测与健康管理过程中的不确定性。

Generating Mechanism of Uncertainty for Prognostics and Health Management

Dealing with the generating and transferring problem of uncertainty in Prognostics and Health Management, propagating mechanism of uncertainty was studied in this paper. Firstly, open system architecture was proposed, and its elements were extracted. Secondly, generating mechanisms were explored for measurement, data, model, method, decision and usage elements. Then propagating mechanism of uncertainty was investigated following the working flow of prognostics and health management. And propagation rules were proved. At last, also the most important, digesting policies were put forward for uncertainty according to generation and propagation mechanisms.