风电功率物理预测模型引入误差量化分析方法

风电功率短期预测是风电调度运行的基础之一,物理预测方法是风电短期功率预测的基本方法之一,在欧美等国家仍作为主要预测方法,分析风电功率物理预测方法的误差源对提升预测精度具有重要作用。针对风电功率物理预测方法的误差来源问题,在分解物理预测关键环节的基础上,分别从物理模型、地转拖曳定律、数值天气预报(NWP)风速、风速-功率转化等方面,采用单一变量原则研究了各环节误差探明方案,通过物理过程推导,提出了一种面向风电功率物理预测模型的误差源分析方法,获得了物理预测方法各环节引入预测误差的量化结果。采用实际算例进行测试的结果显示,所提出的误差源分析方法能够获得误差源量化分析结果,且分析结果与实际相符,验证了方法的准确性。

Quantitative Analysis Method for Errors Introduced by Physical Prediction Model of Wind Power

Short-term wind power prediction is one of the basic supports for dispatching operation of wind power, and the physical prediction method is one of the basic methods for short-term wind power prediction, which is still the main prediction method in Europe and America. It is important to analyze the error sources of the physical prediction method to improve the prediction accuracy of wind power. In view of the error source problem of the physical prediction method for wind power, and on the basis of decomposing the key links of physical prediction model, a detection scheme of errors in each link is designed by using the principle of single variable, which considers the physical model, the geostrophic drag law, the numerical weather prediction (NWP) wind speed and wind speed and power transformation. Through a derivation to the physical process, an error source analysis method for wind power physical prediction model is proposed. Furthermore, the quantitative results of prediction errors in each part of the physical prediction method are obtained. Finally, an actual test case is used and the results show that the proposed error source analysis method can obtain quantitative analysis results of error sources, and the analysis results are consistent with the actual results, which verifies the accuracy of the method.