| 基于区间相离度及GIOWA算子的区间型组合预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑亚男,袁宏俊,庄科俊.基于区间相离度及GIOWA算子的区间型组合预测方法[J].延边大学理工学报,2019,0(1):15-21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑亚男 袁宏俊 庄科俊 |
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| 作者单位： | ( 安徽财经大学 统计与应用数学学院, 安徽 蚌埠 233030 ) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了提高区间数的预测精度,以预测精度作为诱导值,区间相离度作为最优准则,通过广义诱导有序加权平均(generalized induced ordered weighted averaging,GIOWA)算子集结数据,提出了一种基于区间相离度及GIOWA算子的区间型组合预测方法.实例验证表明,该方法的预测精度优于各单项预测方法.通过对参数进行灵敏度分析,得到参数变化对组合预测最优解及预测精度的影响.
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| 关 键 词： | 区间相离度 GIOWA算子 区间型组合预测 灵敏度分析 |
The method of interval combination forecasting based on the deviation degree and the GIOWA operator |
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| ZHENG Yanan,YUAN Hongjun,ZHUANG Kejun.The method of interval combination forecasting based on the deviation degree and the GIOWA operator[J].Journal of Yanbian University (Natural Science),2019,0(1):15-21. |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Yanan YUAN Hongjun ZHUANG Kejun |
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| Affiliation: | ( School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu 233030, China ) |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the forecasting accuracy of interval data, taking the forecasting accuracy as the induction values and the interval deviation degree as the optimal criterion, and GIOWA operator is used to assemble the data, a method of interval combination forecasting model based on the interval deviation degree and the GIOWA operator is established. The example shows that the forecasting accuracy of the model is better than single prediction method. Finally, sensitivity analysis of the model is given, and the influence of parameter on the optimal solution and forecasting accuracy of the model is obtained. |
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| Keywords: | interval deviation degree GIOWA operator interval combination forecasting sensitivity analysis |
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