基于负荷数据分析的用户侧用电感知与失电影响评估方法研究

提出一种基于调度侧配电网负荷数据分析进行负荷性质辨识与用户侧用电感知、失电影响评估的方法。利用调度自动化系统中的负荷数据,首先通过基于时间序列趋势的模糊C均值聚类方法求解馈线负荷曲线与典型负荷曲线的隶属度,判断馈线负荷性质;然后利用用户侧多维系统中历史数据,通过基于用电量积分的概率谱方法,分析线路负荷异常波动对应的用户侧实际用电感知及故障影响。实际案例分析表明:该方法能够根据调度侧负荷数据分析,正确辨识配电线路的负荷性质,精准评估用户侧失电影响,建立配网运行数据与客户用电感知之间的实时映射,辅助配网调控人员根据用户需求开展方式调整与故障处置。

Research on the Evaluation Method of User-side Electricity Consumption Perception and the Impact of Power Outage Based on Load Data Analysis

A method based on load data analysis of distribution network on dispatching side is proposed for identifying load property,perceiving electricity consumption of user-side and assessing the impact of power outage.On the basis of feeder load data in dispatching automation system,the membership degree between feeder load curve and typical load curve is calculated by fuzzy C-means clustering method based on time series trend to judge feeder load property.Then,the load history data in the multi-dimensional system on the user side are integrated,and the probability spectrum method based on electricity consumption integration is used to analyze and evaluate the actual electricity consumption perception and fault impact on the user side corresponding to abnormal fluctuation of line load.The actual case analysis shows that the method can correctly identify the load property of the distribution lines according to the load analysis data on the dispatching side,accurately evaluate the impact of power outage on the user side,the real-time mapping between the operation data of distribution network and the customer’s electricity consumption perception is established,to assist distribution network dispatchers adjusting the operation mode and handle the faults according to the user demands.