基于未确知测度理论的工程成本风险评价

工程成本极易受到各种风险因素的影响，从而给整个项目带来潜在风险。针对工程成本风险的特点，从环境、经济、技术、管理 4 个维度出发，构建成本风险评价指标体系。考虑到风险因素本身的不确定性和评价过程的未确知性，以及指标赋值中人为主观因素的影响，选择未确知测度理论和熵权法建立评价模型。由评价模型得到风险因素测度向量，最终利用置信度识别准则对风险因素测度向量进行排序，确定风险等级。将该方法运用到实际工程中，得出该工程的成本风险处于一般风险等级，与实际情况相吻合，验证了该方法的可行性与有效性。

Risk Evaluation of Engineering Construction Cost Based onUncertainty Measurement Theory

Project cost is easily affected by various risk factors，thus bringing potential risks to the whole project. According to thecharacteristics of engineering cost risk，the evaluation index system of cost risk is constructed from four dimensions of theenvironment，economy，technology and management. Considering the uncertainty of risk factors and evaluation process，as well asthe influence of subjective factors in index evaluation，the uncertainty measurement theory and entropy weight method are selected toestablish the evaluation model. The risk factor measurement vector is obtained from the evaluation model，and finally the risk level isdetermined by ranking the risk factor measurement vector with the confidence identification criterion. The study applies this methodto an actual project，and it is concluded that the cost risk of the project is fair，which is consistent with the actual situation. The resultsof this study verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.