改进的风险决策及NSGA-Ⅱ方法在马莲河流域水资源综合管理中的应用

将马莲河流域系统概化为5个水资源分区,采用指标分析法进行2020和2030年供需水量预测和平衡分析。利用改进的决策树法进行风险分析,将专家咨询概率法引入到决策树敏感性分析中,最终得到2020、2030年的推荐水资源供需分配方案。然后,利用系统分析理论和优化技术建立了流域的大系统、多目标水资源优化配置模型,并采用优化的NSGA-Ⅱ方法进行求解,得到流域2030年推荐水资源配置方案下的最佳分配方案。最后,根据最佳分配方案和预测的流域需水量,进行了流域的水资源平衡分析,通过平衡分析的结果进行流域的综合管理研究。最佳配置方案实现了流域内水资源的最优分配,使宝贵、有限的水资源产生最大的社会、经济及环境效益,为流域经济、能源产业的快速发展提供水资源保障。

Application of improving risk decision-making and NSGA-II method in integrated management of water resources in Malian basin

The paper generalized Malian river basin into five water resources partitions and used index analysis method to predict water supply and demand and carry out balance analysis in 2020 and 2030.Then it utilized improved decision tree method to conducted risk analysis,and introducted expert consulting probabilities into the sensitivity analysis of decision tree, finally it recommended the allocation scheme of water supply and demand 2020 and 2030. The paper used the theory of system analysis and optimization technology to build the large system of the basin and multi-objective water resources optimal allocation model,and used the optimized NSGA-II method to solve problem and obtained the optimal allocation scheme under the recommended plan of water allocation in 2030. Finally according to the optimal allocation scheme and forecasted water demand to conduct balance analysis, which obtained that under the condition of optimal water allocation scheme and the forecasted water requirement. The optimal allocation scheme achieved the most optimal water distribution and made the precious and limited water resources produce the maximum social, economic and environmental benefits and provide water resources support for the rapid growth of economic and energy industry in Malian river basin.