漳河上游径流变化特性分析

海河流域人口密集、水资源短缺,分析河川径流演变对支撑社会经济稳定发展具有重要意义。以海河流域漳河上游为研究对象,基于1958-2012年的实测径流资料,利用Mann-Kendall趋势和突变分析、丰平枯水年划分系统分析了径流的年际年内演变特性。结果表明:近50年来,漳河上游实测径流呈现显著减少趋势,实测径流量系列在1980年前后发生突变,突变后,枯水年出现频次急剧增加,年际变差系数有增大趋势,各月径流量总体减少,而汛期径流的减少程度尤为剧烈。日趋减少的径流量反映当地水资源将面临更大压力和挑战。

Characteristics of runoff varation in upper Zhanghe River watershed

Haihe River basin is suffering from water scarcity partly due to dense population and rapid socio-economic development. It is very important to analyze the evolution of river runoff for the sustainable development of society economy. Taking upper Zhanghe river which belongs to Haihe River basin as study object, the paper used Mann-Kendall trend and abrupt change analysis and high-median-low flow partitioning framework to systematically study the evolution behavior of inter- vs. intra-annual runoff on the basis of discharge observation data from 1958 to 2012.The result showed that from 1958 to 2012,the runoff series from all gauges showed notable downward trend, the abrupt change occured around 1980.The occurrence frequency of low flow years sharply increased after then.The coefficient of annual variation showed an increase trend.The monthly runoff was generally declining with the most descending trend occured in flood season. The result indicated that the local water resources will face greater pressure and challenges because of the ever decreasing runoff.