考虑发展不均衡的电动汽车充电负荷预测

针对小范围内电动汽车样本数量较少的特点,首先提出了基于电动汽车发展不均衡的电动汽车充电需求计算方法,对比了三种不同的拟合方法,并指出了不同情况下不同拟合如何选取;而后,提出了利用电动汽车剩余电量SOC确定电动汽车是否充电的方法,从剩余电量的角度给出了判断电动汽车是否充电的依据;最后,考虑到充电策略执行的可行性与实时性,提出了一种充电桩与用户交互的自由有序充电方式选择策略。针对特定区域内电动汽车充电需求,文章给出了需充电电动汽车数量,并依据SOC判别每辆EV是否充电,进而确定自由有序充电策略下的负荷曲线并与无序充电结果进行对比。仿真结果表明,采用该充电策略可以有效减小充电负荷峰谷差,转移充电负荷峰值,减少电动汽车充电桩需求数量,提高充电桩的使用率。

Charging load forecasting considering the unbalanced development of EV

According to the characteristics that the quantity of electric vehicles in a small range will be small, the method of determining the quantity of EV is proposed based on the unbalance development of EV firstly, the three distribution matching methods are compared and the way of choosing the distribution matching methods are given. Then, the method of judging the EV charging or not is proposed on the basis of the state of EV charging battery. Thirdly, considering the feasibility and instantaneity, the free-orderly charging strategy is proposed in this article. At last, for the EV charge demand in a particular area, this article determines the quantity of EV and weather the EV would charge or not, and then compare the free-orderly charging load curve with the disorderly charging load curve. The result shows that the difference between peak and valley of charging curve could be reduced, the peak charging load time could be shifted, the quantity of EV could be reduced and the usage rate of charging piles could be improved.