基于风险的老龄平台检修规划

为确定老龄平台合理的检修方案，建立基于风险的老龄平台检修规划模型。研究模型中检测、维修与失效期望费用的计算方法，采用遗传算法进行优化求解；利用事件树进行概率分析，计算出各检测时间点平台检测、维修与失效三个基本事件的概率；基于规划模型对老龄平台延寿服役期间的检测间隔、方法及维修决策三个参数进行优化。最后以一老龄平台为例，根据备用的检测方法与维修方法确定10种检修方案，采用检修规划模型进行检修优化，结果表明，合理地安排检测与维修能够有效地降低平台风险，维修方法对检修方案的影响大于检测方法。

Risk-based Inspection and Repair Planning for Ageing Platform

Abstract： In order to determin the optimal inspection and repair scheme, the risk-based inspection and repair planning optimization model is presented. The calculation methods for the expected inspection, repair and failure costs in optimization model are proposed. The ge- netic algorithm in Matlab toolbox is employed to solve the optimization problem. Based on e- vent tree analysis, the formula is derived to calculate inspection probability, repair probability and failure probability at the time of each inspection. Based on the optimization model, all the indeterminate factors of inspection intervals, inspection methods and repair methods are opti- mized. Finally, an ageing platform is considered in the optimization problem, and 10 candidate strategies are determined by combining different inspection methods and repair methods. The results shows that the risk of the platform will be decreased largely duo to inspection and repair optimization, and repair methods have a greater impact on inspection and repair planning than inspection methods. Key words： ageing platform; risk; inspection and repair planning; optimization; genetic algorithm