| 高坝风险分析的事件树法 |
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| 引用本文： | 贾超,李新群. 高坝风险分析的事件树法[J]. 水力发电, 2006, 32(8): 71-74 |
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| 作者姓名： | 贾超 李新群 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 山东大学土建与水利学院,山东,济南,250061
2. 宜兴市工程局,江苏,宜兴,214206 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金委员会、二滩水电开发有限责任公司雅砻江水电开发联合研究基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 新世纪一批高坝将要在我国开工建设,这对我国的水电能源及国民经济的发展有着不可估量的作用,而高坝建设中,安全性是需要首先保证的。目前对高坝的风险分析方法有主观概率法、客观概率法等。从系统工程的角度出发,采用事件树方法对高坝的风险进行了探索研究,并给出了算例以说明该方法的有效性和实用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险分析 风险 事件树 漫顶 地震 高坝 |
| 文章编号： | 0559-9342（2006）08-0071-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-03-13 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-03-13 |
Event Tree Method in Risk Analysis for High Dams |
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| Jia Chao,Li Xinqun. Event Tree Method in Risk Analysis for High Dams[J]. Water Power, 2006, 32(8): 71-74 |
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| Authors: | Jia Chao Li Xinqun |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Civil engineering college of Shandong University, Jinan Shandong 250061; 2. Iinvite public bidding office of Yixing, Yixing Jiangsu 214206 |
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| Abstract: | Many high dams will be constructed in China in new century. These dams will be very important to China's energy resources as well as to China's economic development. Dam safety is the first in the construction of dam, so that we must consider to the ongoing constructing dams. Now probability method is often used to make risk analysis of dam safety. This paper, viewed from the system engineering conception, adoptes the event-tree method to analyze dam safety and risks and gives an example to verify its effectiveness and practicability of such method. |
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| Keywords: | risk analysis risk event-tree method over topping seismic high dam |
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