高压油气探井井控风险诱因体系及权重分析

高压油气探井属于溢流、井涌、井喷事故多发井，做好井控风险诱因的评估是有效降低井控事故发生率、减少事故损失的基础工作。为此，结合层次分析法的理论，在现场案例调查分析的基础上进行了风险诱因的识别和分类，建立了针对高压油气探井井控风险的诱因结构体系，并计算了各级诱因权重。结果表明，在所有31个风险诱因中，气层、抽汲和井控装备3个风险诱因的权重之和高达0.4以上，是影响井控安全的主要因素，与现场实际相符。该研究成果可为现场正确地识别、控制高压油气探井井控风险提供定量的理论依据。

A system of risk incentives and weight analysis of well control for high-pressure hydrocarbon exploratory wells

Downhole accidents such as overflow, kicks, blowouts, etc. will so often occur in those high pressure oil and gas exploratory wells that the assessment of risk incentives is the basic work in well control to reduce the accident rate and losses. To this end, in combination with the analytic hierarchy process, the identification and classification of risk incentives were made according to the investigation and analysis of different cases in fields; on this basis, an incentive structure system was established for high pressure oil and gas exploratory wells and the all level incentive weights were calculated. The results in agreement with the actual fields show that among all the 31 risk incentives, the weights of gas zone, pumping and well control equipment are summed up to be above 0.4, so these three incentives are the main factors affecting the well control safety. This study provides the quantitative theoretical basis for accurate identification and effective control of risks in well control for high pressure oil and gas exploratory wells.