改进的层次分析法在天然气开发技术经济评价中的应用

天然气开发经济评价涉及专业较多，技术经济评价指标庞大，如何确定指标的重要性对评价相当重要。采用层次分析法，通过建立递阶层次结构，构造判断矩阵，计算权重，然后进行综合影响一致性检验和组合权重计算，来确定不同的元素在决策中的作用。利用改进的层次分析法将九标度矩阵变为三标度矩阵，简化了矩阵的给出和求解过程。把天然气开发技术经济评价的综合效用值看成是决策目标层；把天然气开发所覆盖的气藏工程、钻井工程、完井工程、采气工艺、地面集输工程、总体评价看成是受决策目标层支配的准则层；把技术指标、经济指标及技术指标与经济指标的关系看作受准则层支配的子准则层；把具体的技术、经济指标看作受子准则层支配的方案层，最终建立起天然气开发技术经济评价体系模型。以某无水气藏为例，说明了该方法的使用过程。

APPLICATION OF IMPROVED ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS METHOD TO TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF GAS EXPLOITATION 1)

The economic evaluation of gas exploitation covers many majors. The number of indexes is large for technical and economic evaluation. It is very important how to determine the weights of the indexes for the evaluation. With analytical hierarchy process method and by building the level strueture model, establishing the judgment matrix, and calculating the weights, the coherence verification of integrating effects and the calculation of combined weights are conducted to see the effect of different elements in the decision-making. Using the improved analytical hierarchy process method, the nine-scale matrix is changed into three-scale matrix, which simplifies the deriving and solving process of the matrix. The integrated available value of technical and economic evaluation of gas exploitation is regarded as the target level of decision-making. The gas reservoir engineering, drilling engineering, completion engineering, gas recovery technology, surface gas gathering engineering and integrated appraising are regarded as the criterion level dominated by the target level of decision-making. The technical index, e-conomic index and relation between the technical index and the economic index are regarded as the criterion sub-level dominated by the criterion level. The concrete technical and economic indexes are regarded as the program level dominated by the criterion sub-level. Then, the model is developed for technical and economic evaluation system of gas exploitation. Taking a gas reservoir without water as example, the application of the method is explained.