An integrated assessment approach to conduct analyses of climate change impacts on whole-farm systems |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Macaulay Institute, Landscape Change, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, UK;2. Research Institute for Industrial Crops, via di Corticella 133, 40128 Bologna, Italy;3. Department of Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-6120, USA;1. INRA, UMR211 Agronomie, AgroParisTech, F-78850 Thiverval-Grignon, France;2. INRA, UMR1048 SADAPT, AgroParisTech, F-78850 Thiverval-Grignon, France;1. Centre for Studies in Technology and Sustainable Development, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands;2. Deltares, Postbus 85467, 3508 AL Utrecht, Netherlands;3. The James Hutton Institute, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, UK;1. CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture National Research Flagship, PO Box 102, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia;2. Agri-Science Queensland, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, 203 Tor St, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia;3. CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture National Research Flagship, GPO Box 1600, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia;1. University of California-Riverside, Center for Conservation Biology, 900 University Ave, Riverside, CA 92521, United States;2. Wisconsin Energy Institute, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1552 University Avenue, Madison, WI 53726, United States;3. Department of Entomology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706, United States;4. Wisconsin Institutes for Discovery, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 330 N Orchard St, Madison, WI 53715, United States;1. Département des Sciences du bois et de la forêt, Faculté de foresterie, de géographie et de géomatique, Pavillon Abitibi-Price, Université Laval, Québec G1V 0A6, Canada;2. Département d’opérations et systèmes de décision, Faculté de foresterie, de géographie et de géomatique, Pavillon Palasis-Prince, Université Laval, Québec G1V 0A6, Canada |
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| Abstract: | This paper argues that an integrated assessment (IA) approach, combining simulation modelling with deliberative processes involving decision makers and other stakeholders, has the potential to generate credible and relevant assessments of climate change impacts on farming systems. The justification for the approach proposed is that while simulation modelling provides an effective way of exploring the range of possible impacts of climate change and a means of testing the consequences of possible management or policy interventions, the interpretation of the outputs is highly dependent on the point of view of the stakeholder. Inevitably, whatever the responses to climate change, there will be trade-offs between the benefits and costs to a range of stakeholders. The use of a deliberative process that includes stakeholders, both in defining the topics addressed and in debating the interpretations of the outcomes, addresses many of the limitations that have been previously identified in the use of computer-based tools for agricultural decision support. The paper further argues that the concepts of resilience and adaptive capacity are useful for the assessment of climate change impacts as they provide an underpinning theory for processes of change in land use systems. The integrated modelling framework (IMF) developed for the simulation of whole-farm systems is detailed, including components for crop and soil processes, livestock systems and a tool for scheduling of resource use within management plans. The use of the IMF for assessing climate change impacts is then outlined to demonstrate the range of analyses possible. The paper concludes with a critique of the IA approach and notes that issues of quantification and communication of uncertainty are central to the success of the methodology. |
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