A new approach to testing an integrated water systems model using qualitative scenarios |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, PO Box 217, 7500 AE, Enschede, The Netherlands;2. Faculty of Hydro-meteorology and Oceanography, Hanoi University of Science, 334 Nguyen Trai, Thanh Xuan, Hanoi, Vietnam;3. Department of Human Geography of Developing Countries, Faculty of Geo Science, Utrecht University PO Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands;1. CONICET, Argentina;2. Instituto de Cálculo, FCEN, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina;3. Depto. de Matemática, FCEN, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina;4. Depto. de Ingeniería Industrial, FCFM, Universidad de Chile, Chile;5. Instituto de Ciencias, UNGS, Los Polvorines, Buenos Aires, Argentina;6. Instituto de Matemática e Estatística, UERJ, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;7. IM, COPPE and NCE, UFRJ, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;1. University of Stavanger, N-4036 Stavanger, Norway;2. Mills College, Oakland, CA, USA;1. Water for Food Institute, University of Nebraska, United States;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, United States;1. School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, Scotland, UK;2. Carbon Foundation of East Africa, Plot 15 Lubowa Estate, Kampala, Uganda;3. The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8QH, Scotland, UK |
| |
| Abstract: | Integrated systems models have been developed over decades, aiming to support the decision-makers in the planning and managing of natural resources. The inherent model complexity, lack of knowledge about the linkages among model components, scarcity of field data, and uncertainty involved with internal and external factors of the real system call their practical usefulness into doubt. Validation tests designed for such models are just immature, and are argued to have some characteristics that differ from the ones used for validating other types of models. A new approach for testing integrated water systems models is proposed, and applied to test the RaMCo model. Expert knowledge is elicited in the form of qualitative scenarios and translated into quantitative projections using fuzzy set theory. Trend line comparison of the projections made by the RaMCO model and the qualitative projections based on expert knowledge revealed an insufficient number of land-use types adopted by the RaMCo model. This insufficiency makes the model inadequate to describe the consequences of the changes in socio-economic factors and policy options on the erosion from the catchment and the sediment yields at the inlet of a storage lake. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
