Implications of complexity and uncertainty for integrated modelling and impact assessment in river basins |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK;2. Catchment Research Group, Cardiff University, School of Biosciences, The Sir Martin Evans Building, Museum Avenue, Cardiff CF10 3AX, UK;3. Freshwater Ecology and Management Group, Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio), University of Barcelona, Avinguda Diagonal, 643, 08028 Barcelona, Spain;4. Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lennart Hjelms väg 9, 750 07 Uppsala, Sweden;5. Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Gaustadalléen 21, Oslo 0349, Norway;6. Ecohydrology Group, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo G1S1W2, Canada;1. Irstea, UR MALY, Milieux Aquatiques, Ecologie et Pollutions, 5 rue de la Doua, 69626 Villeurbanne, CS70077, France;2. Jülich Research Centre, Institute for Bio- and Geosciences IBG-3, Leo-Brandt-Straße, 52428 Jülich, Germany |
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| Abstract: | The paper focuses on implications of complexity and uncertainty in climate change impact assessment at the river basin and regional scales. The study was performed using the process-based ecohydrological spatially semi distributed model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). The model integrates hydrological processes, vegetation/crop growth, erosion and nutrient dynamics in river basins. It was developed from the SWAT and MATSALU models for climate and land use change impact assessment. The study area is the German part of the Elbe River basin (about 100,000 km2). It is representative for semi-humid landscapes in Europe, where water availability during the summer season is the limiting factor for plant growth and crop yield. The validation method followed the multi-scale, multi-site and multi-criteria approach and enabled to reproduce (a) water discharge and nutrient load at the river outlet along with (b) local ecohydrological processes like water table dynamics in subbasins, nutrient fluxes and vegetation growth dynamics at multiple scales and sites. The uncertainty of climate impacts was evaluated using comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation experiments. |
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