The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Albania,Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach

The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between energy and economic growth in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania from 1980 to 2006 by employing energy use per capita, electric power consumption per capita and real GDP per capita variables. To examine this linkage, we use the two-step procedure from the Engle and Granger model: In first step, we explore the long-run relationships between the variables by using recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration. Secondly, we employ a dynamic vector error correction (VEC) model to test causal relationships between variables. The bounds test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between energy use per capita and real GDP per capita and evidence of two-way (bidirectional) strong Granger causality between these variables only in Hungary. On the other hand, the ARDL bounds test results show that there is no a unique long-term or equilibrium relationship between energy consumption variables and real GDP per capita in Albania, Bulgaria and Romania. In other words, no cointegration exists between these variables in these three countries. The econometric analysis suggests that any causal relationships within dynamic error correction model for Albania, Bulgaria and Romania cannot be estimated.