| 天津市能源消耗与产业结构的相关性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李春发,谭洪玲,王澜颖,李勇.天津市能源消耗与产业结构的相关性分析[J].武汉工学院学报,2012(4):490-494. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李春发 谭洪玲 王澜颖 李勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津理工大学管理学院,天津300384 |
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| 基金项目： | 基金项目：国家社会科学基金资助项目（08BJY004）. |
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| 摘 要： | 针对天津市经济发展、能源节约与产业调整问矛盾日益突出的问题，选取1978--2009年天津市能源消耗总量和三次产业生产总值数据，运用协整分析、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验，对能源消耗总量与产业发展水平间的长期均衡和短期波动关系进行了研究。研究结果表明，天津市能源消耗量与GDP和三次产业产值之间均存在协整关系和一定方向的因果关系，据此，可以从降低能源消耗角度，为天津市产业结构优化调整提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 能源消耗 协整分析 误差修正模型 Granger因果检验 |
Correlativity between Energy Consumption and Industry Structure in Tianjin |
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| Authors: | LI Chunfa TAN Hongling WANG Lanying LI Yong |
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| Affiliation: | Prof. ; School of Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China. |
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| Abstract: | The contradiction between economic development, the constraint of energy consumption growth and industrial reeonstructuring is becoming more prominent in Tianjin. Based on the co - integration analysis and error correction model and Granger causality analysis ,the data of energy consumption and three industries＇ output value of Tianjin from 1978 to 2009 were analyzed in the longterm equilibrium and short -term fluctuation relationship between energy consumption and industry structure. The result shows that between the energy consumption and GDP, energy consumption and three industries＇ output value exits co - integration relationship and certain direction causality relationship. It offers reference for Tianjin industry structure optimizing in prospective of lowering energy consumption. |
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| Keywords: | energy consumption co -integration analysis error correction model Granger causality test |
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